An asteroid, named Apophis, seems to be the one we have identified as having the highest risk of hitting Earth at 1 in 45,000. If it strikes it will be in 2036. Read here.
Now there are some ways suggested to reduce the threat ranging from nudging it off course or destroying it completely and we have several solutions on the drawing board. Read here. So everyone seems to be happy we are making progress.
Except me of course. I’m all for the toys that are going to do the nudging and the destroying of course. They all sound good and I don’t really see why we have to have just one when we need different techniques for different asteroid types. But that is not my main concern.
My concern, taking Apophis as an example, is that we have a 1 in 45,000 chance of it striking. So most of the techniques suggested here are pretty dangerous. We will nudge the asteroid out of it’s path and, perhaps, make that 1 in 45,000 a certainty. Until we can accurately calculate the trajectories we should not be doing a lot of nudging. Of course destroying it sounds fine but what if it doesn’t get destroyed or fragments? It’ll be to late to do anything. It all sounds so uncertain. Yet we have enough knowledge to make these things definitive.
Of course 2036 is a long way away and we can be working on narrowing the chances down and working on what we can do. Still plenty of time to deflect it or destroy it. So little to worry about then?
No there is plenty to worry about. What about that unidentified asteroid due to strike tomorrow (or if you are reading this after tomorrow, tomorrow). We have no time to do any of these things then and as I’ve said before we have had many asteroids making close passes with negligible warning.
No point getting tools built, at great expense, to defend ourselves when we don’t even know when to deploy them. Even our ancestors knew enough to set up beacon fires to send signals back that bad guys were invading so we could get ready. We just don’t learn do we?
We need both tools working together. A good warning system and a good defence. I would envisage the warning part is more difficult. The defence tools suggested are ones that have been on the table for a while now and only need the trivial addition of some resources. It’s for the future of the human species so you would think they would give slightly more than we spend on researching the sexual habits of frogs or something.
Every block of stone has a statue inside it and it is the task of the sculptor to discover it. — Michelangelo (1475 – 1564)
Coming to a planet near you eventually
An asteroid, named Apophis, seems to be the one we have identified as having the highest risk of hitting Earth at 1 in 45,000. If it strikes it will be in 2036. Read here.
Now there are some ways suggested to reduce the threat ranging from nudging it off course or destroying it completely and we have several solutions on the drawing board. Read here. So everyone seems to be happy we are making progress.
Except me of course. I’m all for the toys that are going to do the nudging and the destroying of course. They all sound good and I don’t really see why we have to have just one when we need different techniques for different asteroid types. But that is not my main concern.
My concern, taking Apophis as an example, is that we have a 1 in 45,000 chance of it striking. So most of the techniques suggested here are pretty dangerous. We will nudge the asteroid out of it’s path and, perhaps, make that 1 in 45,000 a certainty. Until we can accurately calculate the trajectories we should not be doing a lot of nudging. Of course destroying it sounds fine but what if it doesn’t get destroyed or fragments? It’ll be to late to do anything. It all sounds so uncertain. Yet we have enough knowledge to make these things definitive.
Of course 2036 is a long way away and we can be working on narrowing the chances down and working on what we can do. Still plenty of time to deflect it or destroy it. So little to worry about then?
No there is plenty to worry about. What about that unidentified asteroid due to strike tomorrow (or if you are reading this after tomorrow, tomorrow). We have no time to do any of these things then and as I’ve said before we have had many asteroids making close passes with negligible warning.
No point getting tools built, at great expense, to defend ourselves when we don’t even know when to deploy them. Even our ancestors knew enough to set up beacon fires to send signals back that bad guys were invading so we could get ready. We just don’t learn do we?
We need both tools working together. A good warning system and a good defence. I would envisage the warning part is more difficult. The defence tools suggested are ones that have been on the table for a while now and only need the trivial addition of some resources. It’s for the future of the human species so you would think they would give slightly more than we spend on researching the sexual habits of frogs or something.